Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #640 of 1,000

P0515

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 10,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 633

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 368

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 272Deviation -R 3 096

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 368. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 380

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 093 to R 6 380
Finished ahead: 263 / 1,000 (26,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #473 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.558
Mean bets / session: 1.421
Loss multiplier: 1.0752×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,8% / 97,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 7002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3501 wagers · RTP 195,00%

CrashR 3501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies