Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #616 of 1,000

P0516

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 8,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 940

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 060

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 140Deviation -R 2 920

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 060. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 191

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 297 to R 5 300
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #449 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,76% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.432
Mean bets / session: 1.182
Loss multiplier: 1.0441×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,4% / 122,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 3053 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 4351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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