Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #471 of 1,000

P0517

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 38,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 414

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 586

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 294Deviation -R 1 292

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 586. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 135

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 272 to R 3 561
Finished ahead: 273 / 1,000 (27,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #446 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.366
Mean bets / session: 1.757
Loss multiplier: 1.1119×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 85,6% / 135,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 9764 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7323 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7323 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Craps / DiceR 4882 wagers · RTP 250,00%

European RouletteR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies