Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #172 of 1,000

P0518

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 74,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 383

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 383

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 273Deviation R 656

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 383. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 158

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 095 to R 5 399
Finished ahead: 299 / 1,000 (29,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #444 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.259
Mean bets / session: 1.336
Loss multiplier: 1.0213×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,6% / 125,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 5791 wagers · RTP 300,00%

American RouletteR 5791 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 5791 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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