Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #423 of 1,000

P0520

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 59,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 915

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 085

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 486Deviation -R 599

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 085. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 933

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 660 to R 11 675
Finished ahead: 295 / 1,000 (29,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #542 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,79% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.378
Mean bets / session: 1.929
Loss multiplier: 1.065×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,3% / 98,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 3505 wagers · RTP 150,00%

American RouletteR 3 4804 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 8701 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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