Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #147 of 1,000

P0521

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 75,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 870

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 870

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 628Deviation R 1 498

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 870. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 519

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 949 to R 14 711
Finished ahead: 271 / 1,000 (27,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #674 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,22% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.529
Mean bets / session: 2.938
Loss multiplier: 1.0981×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 88,0% / 88,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 5 10010 wagers · RTP 180,00%

American RouletteR 4 5909 wagers · RTP 66,67%

CrashR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 62,50%

BaccaratR 1 5303 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BlackjackR 1 0202 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Craps / DiceR 5101 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 250,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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