Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #150 of 1,000

P0522

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 71,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 732

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 732

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 581Deviation R 1 313

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 732. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 144

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 344 to R 17 465
Finished ahead: 320 / 1,000 (32,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #649 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.592
Mean bets / session: 1.567
Loss multiplier: 1.0691×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,5% / 111,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 0755 wagers · RTP 120,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 4453 wagers · RTP 66,67%

European RouletteR 2 4453 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BlackjackR 8151 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 150,34%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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