Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #236 of 1,000

P0523

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 72,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 957

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 44

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 128Deviation R 84

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 44. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 691

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 287 to R 2 891
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #383 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,98% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.28
Mean bets / session: 1.412
Loss multiplier: 1.0951×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,5% / 104,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6262 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 6262 wagers · RTP 125,00%

BaccaratR 3131 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3131 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 3131 wagers · RTP 300,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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