Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #458 of 1,000

P0525

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 46,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 487

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 513

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 265Deviation -R 1 248

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 513. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 342

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 898 to R 6 519
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #469 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.446
Mean bets / session: 1.213
Loss multiplier: 1.0881×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,3% / 105,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 8844 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1 8844 wagers · RTP 75,00%

CrashR 9422 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4711 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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