Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #904 of 1,000

P0527

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 6,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 051

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 949

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 586Deviation -R 8 363

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 949. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 261

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 118 to R 16 509
Finished ahead: 322 / 1,000 (32,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #657 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,83% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.536
Mean bets / session: 2.309
Loss multiplier: 1.0004×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,9% / 143,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 4337 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 6495 wagers · RTP 124,54%

Craps / DiceR 2 2804 wagers · RTP 12,02%

European RouletteR 1 9003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 3382 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 50,00%

CrashR 2471 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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