Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #317 of 1,000

P0528

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 67,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 620

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 380

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 318Deviation -R 62

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 380. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 066

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 840 to R 10 454
Finished ahead: 303 / 1,000 (30,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #552 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.506
Mean bets / session: 1.454
Loss multiplier: 1.1144×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,8% / 142,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 191,19%

Craps / DiceR 6771 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 6771 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 6771 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 6771 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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