Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #543 of 1,000

P0529

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 32,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 781

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 219

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 291Deviation -R 1 928

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 219. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 411

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 189 to R 6 139
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #479 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.444
Mean bets / session: 2.77
Loss multiplier: 1.0101×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 84,9% / 141,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 1405 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 9124 wagers · RTP 50,00%

European RouletteR 6843 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4562 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4562 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 4562 wagers · RTP 195,00%

BlackjackR 2281 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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