Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #703 of 1,000

P0531

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 6,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 535

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 465

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 388Deviation -R 4 077

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 465. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 438

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 768 to R 8 245
Finished ahead: 286 / 1,000 (28,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #485 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.279
Mean bets / session: 1.889
Loss multiplier: 1.0399×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,8% / 119,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 9055 wagers · RTP 40,00%

European RouletteR 2 3244 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 7433 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Craps / DiceR 5811 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 5811 wagers · RTP 195,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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