Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #96 of 1,000

P0532

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 83,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13 106

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 3 106

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 510Deviation R 3 616

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 3 106. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 514

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 912 to R 7 698
Finished ahead: 289 / 1,000 (28,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #600 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.649
Mean bets / session: 2.665
Loss multiplier: 1.0691×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,0% / 136,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 82213 wagers · RTP 38,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 650,00%

European RouletteR 1 1764 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8823 wagers · RTP 80,07%

CrashR 8823 wagers · RTP 41,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

Craps / DiceR 2941 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BaccaratR 2941 wagers · RTP 195,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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