Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #63 of 1,000

P0533

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 94,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17 390

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7 390

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 475Deviation R 7 865

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7 390. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 641

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 630 to R 7 663
Finished ahead: 309 / 1,000 (30,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #502 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.39
Mean bets / session: 1.663
Loss multiplier: 1.0255×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,0% / 86,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 4244 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BlackjackR 1 8183 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 6061 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BaccaratR 6061 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 6061 wagers · RTP 1 800,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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