Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #723 of 1,000

P0534

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 23,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 234

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 766

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 569Deviation -R 4 197

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 766. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 410

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 344 to R 12 546
Finished ahead: 282 / 1,000 (28,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #588 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.643
Mean bets / session: 1.855
Loss multiplier: 1.0617×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,4% / 96,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 0859 wagers · RTP 22,22%

CrashR 3 0006 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 2 8255 wagers · RTP 78,00%

European RouletteR 1 6953 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 1 1302 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 5651 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 285,07%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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