Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #262 of 1,000

P0536

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 72,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 850

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 150

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 469Deviation R 319

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 150. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 281

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 776 to R 21 518
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #663 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.418
Mean bets / session: 2.311
Loss multiplier: 1.0665×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,2% / 145,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 3905 wagers · RTP 80,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 7562 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 8781 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 250,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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