Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #479 of 1,000

P0537

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 25,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 331

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 669

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 157Deviation -R 1 513

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 669. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 925

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 763 to R 3 601
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #417 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.609
Mean bets / session: 1.025
Loss multiplier: 1.1083×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 88,9% / 138,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8253 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Craps / DiceR 5502 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5502 wagers · RTP 146,48%

BlackjackR 2751 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 2751 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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