Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #541 of 1,000

P0538

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 57,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 824

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 176

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 421Deviation -R 1 755

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 176. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 932

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 433 to R 14 099
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #629 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,50% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.415
Mean bets / session: 2.032
Loss multiplier: 1.0486×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 88,1% / 113,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 8803 wagers · RTP 130,00%

American RouletteR 2 8803 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 9202 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 98,47%

BlackjackR 9601 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 9601 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 275,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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