Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #677 of 1,000

P0539

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 48,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 882

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 118

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 896Deviation -R 3 222

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 118. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 817

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 838 to R 19 214
Finished ahead: 323 / 1,000 (32,3%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #697 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.534
Mean bets / session: 2.858
Loss multiplier: 1.0926×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 86,1% / 105,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 6 0137 wagers · RTP 42,86%

BlackjackR 4 2955 wagers · RTP 160,00%

CrashR 3 0006 wagers · RTP 87,50%

European RouletteR 2 5773 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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