Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #68 of 1,000

P0540

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 91,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 971

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 971

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 587Deviation R 6 559

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 971. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 843

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 038 to R 10 628
Finished ahead: 297 / 1,000 (29,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #534 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.338
Mean bets / session: 2.479
Loss multiplier: 1.108×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,5% / 141,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 5007 wagers · RTP 40,50%

BlackjackR 1 6323 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 1 6323 wagers · RTP 600,00%

BaccaratR 1 0882 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 5441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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