Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #852 of 1,000

P0542

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 17,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 433

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 567

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 840Deviation -R 6 727

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 567. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 164

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 641 to R 20 049
Finished ahead: 289 / 1,000 (28,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #717 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.479
Mean bets / session: 2.336
Loss multiplier: 1.0017×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,1% / 127,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 0207 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 8685 wagers · RTP 122,59%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3593 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 2952 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 36,36%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Craps / DiceR 8451 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4611 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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