Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #418 of 1,000

P0544

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 60,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 964

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 036

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 335Deviation -R 700

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 036. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 635

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 524 to R 6 250
Finished ahead: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #504 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.567
Mean bets / session: 2.689
Loss multiplier: 1.0591×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,2% / 112,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 8968 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7113 wagers · RTP 33,33%

CrashR 7113 wagers · RTP 41,67%

Craps / DiceR 4742 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 4742 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4742 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 4742 wagers · RTP 150,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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