Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #76 of 1,000

P0546

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 89,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 368

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 368

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 730Deviation R 6 098

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 368. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 222

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 287 to R 16 593
Finished ahead: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #651 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.508
Mean bets / session: 2.362
Loss multiplier: 1.022×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,9% / 70,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 6 0759 wagers · RTP 166,67%

Craps / DiceR 2 0253 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 118,46%

European RouletteR 1 3502 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 3502 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 150,00%

BaccaratR 6751 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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