Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #654 of 1,000

P0547

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 24,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 263

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 737

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 418Deviation -R 3 319

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 737. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 730

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 748 to R 9 570
Finished ahead: 292 / 1,000 (29,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #515 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,75% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.368
Mean bets / session: 1.602
Loss multiplier: 1.1104×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,6% / 112,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 6255 wagers · RTP 40,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 137,55%

European RouletteR 1 4502 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4502 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7251 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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