Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #861 of 1,000

P0548

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 14,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 054

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 946

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 976Deviation -R 6 969

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 946. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 693

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 862 to R 16 919
Finished ahead: 263 / 1,000 (26,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #736 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,22% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.609
Mean bets / session: 2.279
Loss multiplier: 1.0433×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,6% / 138,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 00010 wagers · RTP 162,34%

American RouletteR 4 7578 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4 3247 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 1474 wagers · RTP 45,95%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 83,33%

BlackjackR 1 4242 wagers · RTP 108,85%

BaccaratR 7931 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies