Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #597 of 1,000

P0549

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 15,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 170

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 830

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 233Deviation -R 2 597

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 830. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 195

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 878 to R 5 082
Finished ahead: 300 / 1,000 (30,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #449 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,92% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.457
Mean bets / session: 1.233
Loss multiplier: 1.0436×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,3% / 128,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 3083 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 8722 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BaccaratR 4361 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4361 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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