Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #774 of 1,000

P0550

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 2,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 189

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 811

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 561Deviation -R 5 250

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 811. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 930

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 116 to R 7 022
Finished ahead: 285 / 1,000 (28,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #540 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 20,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.511
Mean bets / session: 1.398
Loss multiplier: 1.092×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,9% / 110,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 2555 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BaccaratR 1 3533 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3533 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 3533 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies