Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #573 of 1,000

P0552

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 28,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 502

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 498

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 244Deviation -R 2 254

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 498. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 438

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 541 to R 7 186
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #485 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.265
Mean bets / session: 1.918
Loss multiplier: 1.033×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 64,4% / 132,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 5333 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0222 wagers · RTP 97,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BlackjackR 5111 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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