Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #531 of 1,000

P0554

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 30,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 885

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 115

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 195Deviation -R 1 920

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 115. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 124

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 241 to R 5 989
Finished ahead: 303 / 1,000 (30,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #440 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.332
Mean bets / session: 1.371
Loss multiplier: 1.0066×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,7% / 118,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 9005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 1602 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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