Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #193 of 1,000

P0555

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 73,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 200

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 200

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 502Deviation R 702

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 200. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 560

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 399 to R 15 778
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #599 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.441
Mean bets / session: 2.642
Loss multiplier: 1.0995×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,6% / 71,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 2505 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 6004 wagers · RTP 112,50%

European RouletteR 1 9503 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 57,14%

Craps / DiceR 6501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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