Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #404 of 1,000

P0557

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 50,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 108

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 892

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 350Deviation -R 542

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 892. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 913

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 880 to R 4 698
Finished ahead: 283 / 1,000 (28,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #414 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.524
Mean bets / session: 1.042
Loss multiplier: 1.0968×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,2% / 97,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 3048 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Craps / DiceR 5762 wagers · RTP 250,00%

BlackjackR 5762 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 5762 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

European RouletteR 2881 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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