Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #792 of 1,000

P0558

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 15,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 855

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 145

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 644Deviation -R 5 501

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 145. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 578

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 036 to R 12 464
Finished ahead: 285 / 1,000 (28,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #608 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.516
Mean bets / session: 2.218
Loss multiplier: 1.1153×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,6% / 104,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 7208 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 5005 wagers · RTP 26,59%

BlackjackR 1 1802 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 1802 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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