Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #419 of 1,000

P0559

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 60,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 950

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 050

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 100Deviation -R 950

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 050. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 103

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 303 to R 11 179
Finished ahead: 317 / 1,000 (31,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #557 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.303
Mean bets / session: 2.562
Loss multiplier: 1.0094×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 80,5% / 100,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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