Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #722 of 1,000

P0560

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 13,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 269

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 731

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 426Deviation -R 4 305

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 731. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 732

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 922 to R 11 352
Finished ahead: 298 / 1,000 (29,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #517 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,92% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.362
Mean bets / session: 1.283
Loss multiplier: 1.1118×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,2% / 129,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 7813 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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