Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #788 of 1,000

P0562

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 37,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 940

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 060

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 699Deviation -R 5 361

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 060. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 028

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 066 to R 20 233
Finished ahead: 291 / 1,000 (29,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #705 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.504
Mean bets / session: 2.599
Loss multiplier: 1.0083×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 62,8% / 139,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 6 8389 wagers · RTP 44,52%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 52,17%

BaccaratR 1 5222 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5411 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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