Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #411 of 1,000

P0563

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 26,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 019

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 981

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 93Deviation -R 888

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 981. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 482

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 572 to R 1 983
Finished ahead: 294 / 1,000 (29,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #349 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.3
Mean bets / session: 1.071
Loss multiplier: 1.0643×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,0% / 130,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2681 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 2681 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2681 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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