Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #857 of 1,000

P0564

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 1,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 228

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 772

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 686Deviation -R 7 086

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 772. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 989

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 401 to R 10 520
Finished ahead: 331 / 1,000 (33,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #549 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.624
Mean bets / session: 1.907
Loss multiplier: 1.1093×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,2% / 128,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 1958 wagers · RTP 17,56%

BaccaratR 2 8307 wagers · RTP 91,98%

Craps / DiceR 2 7937 wagers · RTP 47,83%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 20,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 18,18%

CrashR 9292 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 16,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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