Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #121 of 1,000

P0565

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 77,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 805

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 805

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 536Deviation R 2 341

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 805. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 419

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 103 to R 15 858
Finished ahead: 300 / 1,000 (30,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #667 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,83% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.456
Mean bets / session: 2.737
Loss multiplier: 1.0797×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 84,2% / 144,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 1755 wagers · RTP 120,00%

BlackjackR 1 6702 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 8351 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 8351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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