Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #571 of 1,000

P0566

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 34,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 523

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 477

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 310Deviation -R 2 168

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 477. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 803

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 225 to R 6 108
Finished ahead: 215 / 1,000 (21,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #525 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.603
Mean bets / session: 1.667
Loss multiplier: 1.0608×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,0% / 105,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0324 wagers · RTP 77,77%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

American RouletteR 7743 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5162 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5162 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 2581 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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