Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #117 of 1,000

P0567

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 89,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 984

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 984

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 422Deviation R 2 406

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 984. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 280

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 855 to R 4 752
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #462 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.291
Mean bets / session: 2.752
Loss multiplier: 1.033×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,9% / 126,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 1969 wagers · RTP 155,56%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4882 wagers · RTP 250,00%

CrashR 4882 wagers · RTP 500,00%

Craps / DiceR 4882 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2441 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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