Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #92 of 1,000

P0570

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 86,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13 623

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 3 623

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 646Deviation R 4 269

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 3 623. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 766

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 918 to R 9 907
Finished ahead: 261 / 1,000 (26,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #618 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.533
Mean bets / session: 2.413
Loss multiplier: 1.0449×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,9% / 113,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 0546 wagers · RTP 83,33%

BaccaratR 1 5273 wagers · RTP 133,33%

European RouletteR 1 5273 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 166,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 15,38%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 1 033,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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