Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #364 of 1,000

P0573

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 70,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 404

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 596

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 550Deviation -R 46

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 596. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 548

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 220 to R 3 671
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #489 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.589
Mean bets / session: 1.72
Loss multiplier: 1.0617×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,0% / 70,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 3105 wagers · RTP 160,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 0484 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 7863 wagers · RTP 150,00%

CrashR 5242 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 2621 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2621 wagers · RTP 461,42%

European RouletteR 2621 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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