Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #671 of 1,000

P0574

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 30,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 015

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 985

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 495Deviation -R 3 491

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 985. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 135

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 681 to R 9 850
Finished ahead: 300 / 1,000 (30,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #551 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,36% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.504
Mean bets / session: 1.976
Loss multiplier: 1.0152×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,7% / 99,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 5 0818 wagers · RTP 72,43%

American RouletteR 2 5354 wagers · RTP 67,46%

CrashR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 142,86%

European RouletteR 5931 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5821 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 140,32%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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