Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #567 of 1,000

P0576

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 62,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 550

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 451

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 937Deviation -R 1 513

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 451. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 029

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 106 to R 15 002
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #707 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,33% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.468
Mean bets / session: 2.443
Loss multiplier: 1.0491×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 85,6% / 112,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 7 6469 wagers · RTP 35,39%

BlackjackR 1 7982 wagers · RTP 225,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 5512 wagers · RTP 289,81%

CrashR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 41,67%

European RouletteR 8521 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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