Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #807 of 1,000

P0577

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 9,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 550

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 450

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 451Deviation -R 5 999

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 450. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 178

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 033 to R 11 050
Finished ahead: 312 / 1,000 (31,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #563 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.545
Mean bets / session: 1.37
Loss multiplier: 1.0243×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,7% / 78,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 3853 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 2304 wagers · RTP 38,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 137,36%

BlackjackR 7951 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 7221 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 57,14%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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