Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #737 of 1,000

P0581

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 38,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 976

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 024

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 733Deviation -R 4 291

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 024. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 062

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 657 to R 17 190
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #706 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.637
Mean bets / session: 1.846
Loss multiplier: 1.0062×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,8% / 72,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 7 14811 wagers · RTP 112,91%

American RouletteR 3 4286 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4183 wagers · RTP 58,96%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9822 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BlackjackR 6451 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 5601 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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