Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #125 of 1,000

P0583

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 77,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 597

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 597

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 573Deviation R 3 169

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 597. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 607

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 804 to R 13 983
Finished ahead: 300 / 1,000 (30,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #680 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.613
Mean bets / session: 2.828
Loss multiplier: 1.0774×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,2% / 89,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 97010 wagers · RTP 130,00%

BlackjackR 4 4739 wagers · RTP 111,11%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 4855 wagers · RTP 271,78%

CrashR 2 4855 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2 4855 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4913 wagers · RTP 333,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 10,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 20,00%

BaccaratR 9942 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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