Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #601 of 1,000

P0585

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 38,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 110

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 890

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 350Deviation -R 2 539

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 890. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 957

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 960 to R 8 917
Finished ahead: 295 / 1,000 (29,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #539 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.599
Mean bets / session: 1.198
Loss multiplier: 1.1133×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,2% / 79,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 1 9863 wagers · RTP 133,33%

American RouletteR 1 3242 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 3242 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 129,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 16,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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