Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #843 of 1,000

P0586

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 19,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 698

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 302

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 744Deviation -R 6 558

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 302. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 453

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 766 to R 20 473
Finished ahead: 256 / 1,000 (25,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #727 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.638
Mean bets / session: 2.183
Loss multiplier: 1.0728×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,5% / 149,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 7 3439 wagers · RTP 59,53%

Craps / DiceR 3 1954 wagers · RTP 143,91%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 14,29%

BaccaratR 1 2442 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1633 wagers · RTP 46,10%

European RouletteR 9691 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 3431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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